More chaos in the USA. when can these megalomaniacs stop playing chicken and get on with the recovery from the GFC.
expect the markets to be lower until the chaos is solved.
Volatility is the name of the game.
Remember we are not financial advisors..
Sampson management Services (SMS) educate and inform only...We are Asset Management Consultants- we teach you about risk and how to measure that risk according to the international standards on Quality, Environment, OHS, and Risk management in an integrated approach.
Ref standards:
AS/NZS/ISO 9001, AS/NZS/ISO 14001, AS/NZS/ISO 4804, AS/NZS/ISO 4360.
Megamoneybox address is http://Megamoneybox.blogspot.com.au We try to help you earn money on the internet.We give free share trading tips. We aim to educate and enthuse. We are in Australia in the land of the Sun. We are asset management and risk consultants, are not financial advisors. You Trade at your own risk. We could be wrong. So do your homework. Go to our other blogs to de stress. We are not big risk takers. We asses, investigate, analyse and then decide.
Monday, October 7, 2013
Thursday, October 3, 2013
George Soros on the future, + risers asx:mnw, asx:adj, and asx:sma Do your homework, asess your risk
Here's a rather long winded newsletter form George sorros, but it is worth reading.
here's hoping there is a solution. In the meantime MNW Mint wirless is rising so is adj adslot. Plus sma is rising well.
go to www.asx.com.au and see how much!
GeorgeSoros.com Newsletter
Dear Friends and Colleagues,
George made the following remarks today at the Global Economic Symposium in Kiel, Germany. In his remarks, George analyzes the current state of the euro crisis and warns that a looming period of economic stagnation may destroy the union.
Best,
Michael Vachon
~~~~~~
The Future of Europe
Remarks delivered by George Soros at the Global Economic Symposium
October 1, 2013 :: Kiel, Germany
I shall take a holistic approach to the future of Europe. I have developed a conceptual framework, which has guided me in my decisions throughout my adult life. The framework is much broader than the financial markets; it deals with the relationship between thinking and reality. What makes that relationship so complicated is that the thoughts and actions of participants are part of the reality they have to think about. Their thinking serves a dual function: on the one hand they try to understand the world in which they live – that is the cognitive function; on the other, they want to influence the events in which they participate – that is the manipulative function. The two functions interfere with each other – I call the interference reflexivity. The cornerstone of my conceptual framework is the human uncertainty principle, which is based on the twin pillars of fallibility and reflexivity.
The human uncertainty principle has far reaching implications for scientific method. It applies only to social phenomena and thereby it separates the social sciences from the natural sciences. Economic theory has sought to imitate the natural sciences, particularly Newtonian physics. Consequently my conceptual framework is in direct conflict with mainstream economic theory.
The differences are especially pronounced in dealing with financial problems in general and the euro crisis in particular. Mainstream economics has pursued timelessly and universally valid laws whose validity can be tested by reference to the facts. I contend that the facts produced by social processes do not constitute a reliable criterion for judging the validity of theories because of the human uncertainty principle. I do not deny the possibility of establishing universally and timelessly valid laws – the human uncertainty principle is one of them – but I consider such laws too vague and general to be of much use in producing specific predictions and explanations.
In any case social phenomena are easier to explain than to predict. The past is uniquely determined while the human uncertainty principle renders the future inherently indeterminate. That is not how Newtonian physics works. Mainstream economics sought to apply the Newtonian approach to social phenomena by introducing the concept of equilibrium. This required elaborate mental gymnastics. It started with the theory of perfect competition, which assumed perfect knowledge and ended with rational expectations and the efficient market hypothesis.
By contrast I emphasize the role of misconceptions, misinterpretations and a sheer lack of understanding in shaping the course of events. I focus on the process of change rather than on the eventual outcome. The process involves reflexive feedback loops between the objective and subjective aspects of reality. Fallibility insures that the two aspects are never identical. That is where my framework differs from mainstream economics.
Feedback can be negative or positive. Negative feedback narrows the divergence between the objective and subjective aspects of reality; positive feedback widens it. Carried to an extreme, negative feedback would lead to equilibrium; positive feedback would result in mayhem. In standard economics equilibrium is the inevitable outcome, in my framework equilibrium is one of two theoretical extremes. Reality ranges from near equilibrium to far from equilibrium conditions, but the distribution of cases does not follow a regular bell curve; it tends to cluster around the two extremes. The extremes act as “strange attractors” because people tend to use dichotomies to simplify matters. A situation can be considered stable or unstable. But people’s opinion can shift quite quickly. This leads to the “fat tails” observed in market volatility- that is inherent in my framework but not in standard economics.
Using this conceptual framework I have developed a boom-bust theory of financial crises, which is the opposite of equilibrium. It consists of a trend that prevails in reality and a misinterpretation or misconception relating to that trend. The trend and the misconception mutually reinforce each other until they grow to such an extent that the misconception becomes increasingly apparent. Eventually an inflection point is reached where the trend is reversed and a positive feedback loop develops in the opposite direction.
Boom bust processes or bubbles are only one manifestation of reflexivity and only occasionally do they grow to a size where they assume macroeconomic importance. There is also a reflexive interaction between the authorities and the markets. Behind the invisible hand of markets lurks the visible hand of politics. Both the markets and the authorities are fallible; that is what makes their interaction reflexive. While bubbles occur only intermittently the interplay between economics and politics is ongoing. We need to study the political economy where every event is unique instead of looking for timelessly valid laws.
My conceptual framework consists of universally valid generalizations; therefore its usefulness in explaining or predicting the political economy is strictly limited. But as a hedge fund manager I have used it to develop specific theories about specific situations and my performance record testifies to their usefulness.
I have followed the euro crisis closely ever since its inception. I have written numerous articles about it that has been collected in a book. I found my conceptual framework particularly helpful because the crisis is the result of a reflexive interaction between financial and political processes and combines historical, cultural, moral and above all legal aspects. That makes it so complicated that it boggles the mind. Misconceptions have played a central role. I shall focus on them instead of presenting a comprehensive analysis.
The design of the common currency had many flaws. Some of them were known at the time the euro was introduced. Everybody, for example, knew that it was an incomplete currency; it had a central bank, but it didn't have a common treasury. Other defects were discovered only in the crisis. In retrospect the most important defect was that the euro exposed the government bonds of member countries to the risk of default. In a developed country with its own currency, the risk of default is absent because it can always print money. But by ceding that right to an independent central bank, the member-states put themselves in the position of third-world countries that borrow in a foreign currency. This fact was not recognized either by the markets or by the authorities prior to the crisis, testifying to the fallibility of both.
When the euro was introduced, the authorities actually declared government bonds to be riskless. Commercial banks were not required to set aside any capital reserves against their holdings of government bonds and the European Central Bank (ECB) accepted all government bonds on equal terms at its discount window. This set up a perverse incentive for commercial banks to buy the debt of the weaker governments in order to earn what eventually became just a few basis points, because interest rate differentials converged to practically zero.
This convergence in interest rates caused divergences in economic performance. The weaker countries enjoyed real estate, consumption and investment booms, while Germany, weighed down by the burdens of reunification, had to adopt fiscal austerity and structural reforms. This divergence was not envisioned by the Maastricht Treaty, which assumed that only the public sector produces disequilibrium.
Then came the Crash of 2008. After the Lehman bankruptcy European finance ministers declared that no other systemically important financial institution would be allowed to fail but Chancellor Merkel insisted that the obligation should fall on each country individually, not on the European Union or the Eurozone collectively. That was the onset of the euro crisis but it took markets more than a year to react to it. Only when Greece revealed a much larger than expected fiscal deficit did markets realize that Greece may actually default on its debt – but then they raised risk premiums with a vengeance not only on Greek bonds but on the bonds of all the so-called periphery countries. By then those countries became saddled with much more debt than a third world country would have been able to accumulate.
The outbreak of the crisis put the European financial authorities in a bind. They had to deal with the crisis in accordance with rules that were patently inappropriate to prevailing conditions; yet they couldn’t change the Maastricht and Lisbon Treaties because public opinion especially in France and Germany was opposed to any further steps towards European integration. Consequently, the authorities had to resort to all kinds of legal subterfuges to prevent the euro from collapsing. This made the rules governing the euro much more complicated than they would have been if they had been designed de novo. At the same time some of the changes that arose in practice, notably the risk of default and the bail-in of bondholders were gradually given legal recognition. This has put heavily indebted countries at a large and recurrent disadvantage, which has not been properly acknowledged.
In this context the double meaning of the German word “Schuld” has played a key role. It means both debt and guilt. This has made it natural or “Selbstverstandlich” for the German public to blame the heavily indebted countries for their misfortunes. But that is not justified by the facts, except in the case of Greece. The Greek government had blatantly violated the Treaties, but the other debtor countries had played by the rules. Indeed Spain used to be held up as a paragon of prudent fiscal management. Clearly the faults were systemic. The responsibility for the misfortunes of the heavily indebted countries rests mainly with those who decided the rules that govern the euro, Germany and France foremost among them. But this conclusion would be stubbornly resisted in those countries.
The euro crisis is now over. This became official in the German elections where the rules governing the euro were not even discussed. Yet the system that emerged from the crisis is far from satisfactory. Mainstream economists would call it an inferior equilibrium; I call it a far-from equilibrium situation. The euro crisis has already transformed the European Union into something radically different from what was originally intended. The EU was meant to be a voluntary association of sovereign and equal states that surrendered part of their sovereignty for the common good. It has turned into a relationship between creditors and debtors that is by its nature compulsory and unequal. When a debtor country gets into difficulties the creditor countries gain the upper hand. The rules they have established merely perpetuate this state of affairs. That is liable to be politically unacceptable and it has the potential of destroying the European Union altogether. Only the creditors are in a position to prevent this outcome but they do not seem to show any inclination to do so.
The defects of the currently prevailing situation fall into two categories: political and financial. On the political side Germany has emerged as the de facto hegemonic power. Germany cannot dictate to the others but the European authorities cannot make any proposals without obtaining Germany’s permission. Democracy flourishes in Germany but debtor countries stumble from one political crisis to the next. And the German Constitutional Court has emerged as the most powerful judicial authority in Europe. Since Germany, mindful of its recent history, did not want to play a hegemonic role, it is unwilling to accept the responsibilities and liabilities that go with that role. As a result Germany is reviled in some other countries while Germany feels unjustly accused of occupying a position that it actively sought to avoid.
Contrast that with the United States, which acted as a benign hegemon at the end of World War II embarking on the Marshall Plan; subsequently it was acclaimed as the leader of the free world and enjoyed the lasting allegiance of Europe. Current German attitudes are also in sharp contrast with the attitude prevailing at the time of German reunification. At that time Germany became the engine of European integration in order to achieve that goal.
On the economic front the austerity policy advocated by Germany proved to be counterproductive. Every euro of reduction in the fiscal deficit caused more than a euro of reduction in GDP – in other words the fiscal multiplier turned out to be more than one. The German public found that difficult to understand. The fiscal reforms introduced by the Schroeder government were successful; why should a policy that worked for Germany not work for Europe? The reason is that the Schroeder government operated in an inflationary environment and the current environment is deflationary. It took a long time for the European authorities to recognize this fact but eventually they did and they stopped imposing additional austerity measures. That relieved the downward pressure and allowed the Eurozone to hit bottom and the financial crisis to abate. The Eurozone is now in a mild rebound led by Germany but the heavily indebted countries are lagging behind. The divergence is largely due to their higher debt burden and the higher cost of money. Since these are recurrent, the divergence is bound to get wider with the passage of time.
What needs to be done follows directly from this analysis of what has happened. Recognizing the mistakes and identifying the misconceptions that have created the current situation is the first step; correcting them is the second. Only Germany can initiate the process because, as the country with the highest credit standing, it is in the driver’s seat. If a debtor country tried to do it would merely aggravate its own position. Admitting and correcting mistakes is never easy. In this case there is no shame attached to it because the situation was so complicated that it boggled every mind. Doing it would earn Germany the long lasting gratitude of the rest of Europe. Failure to do is much worse. It has created a nightmare in which the victims of the current policies have to live in their waking lives. Now that the euro crisis has ended, Germany has emerged victorious. But it is a Pyrrhic victory that would be better to avoid. I’m glad that this conference, which is almost unique in recognizing the severity of the problems that continue to confront Europe is exploring the possibilities.
Remember we are not financial advisors..
Sampson management Services (SMS) educate and inform only...We are Assett Management Consultants- we teach you about risk and how to measure that risk according to the international standards on Quality, Environment, OHS, and Risk management in an integrated approach.
Ref standards:
AS/NZS/ISO 9001, AS/NZS/ISO 14001, AS/NZS/ISO 4804, AS/NZS/ISO 4360.
Tuesday, October 1, 2013
Chart for SMA
Here's a chart for SMA 1.10.13
Remember we are not financial advisors..
Sampson management Services (SMS) educate and inform only...We are Assett Management Consultants- we teach you about risk and how to measure that risk according to the international standards on Quality, Environment, OHS, and Risk management in an integrated approach.
Ref standards:
AS/NZS/ISO 9001, AS/NZS/ISO 14001, AS/NZS/ISO 4804, AS/NZS/ISO 4360.
Wednesday, September 25, 2013
ASX:SMA
SmartTrans Holdings Limited
ASX:SMA
was only 0.002 in June 13 and is now up, up to .016 go to www.asx.com.au and type code SMA for the latest prices.
Looks pretty good to me! fingers crossed. go to this link to see prices https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1380175200000&chddm=84474&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=ASX:SMA&ntsp=0&ei=7pBDUujgDMSikgWfigE
There are bargains everywhere with shares at much less than half their ytd price, but which sector and which company?
MINT wireless MNW, and ADSlot ADJ look good too!
Remember we are not financial advisors.
Sampson management Services (SMS) educate and inform only...We are Assett Management Consultants.We teach you about risk and how to measure that risk according to the international standards on Quality, Environment, OHS, and Risk management in an integrated approach.
Read them. Ref standards:
AS/NZS/ISO 9001, AS/NZS/ISO 14001, AS/NZS/ISO 4804, AS/NZS/ISO 4360.
Friday, September 13, 2013
When Adslot ADJ announced the merge with FAC yesterday ADJ jumped by 19% but FAC jumped by over 240%. Why? because the amount Adslot offered to pay for each FAC share (0.067) was more than they were trading at. But why did people buy more FAC than ADJ? There must be more to it.
Remember we are not financial advisors..
Sampson management Services (SMS) educate and inform only...We are Assett Management Consultants- we teach you about risk and how to measure that risk according to the international standards on Quality, Environment, OHS, and Risk management in an integrated approach.
Ref standards:
AS/NZS/ISO 9001, AS/NZS/ISO 14001, AS/NZS/ISO 4804, AS/NZS/ISO 4360.
We like this! We bought a small parcel in July, then sold most, but now look! This does show promise, and is proudly Australian.
ADJ up today 19% and FAC jumped up hugely in anticipation... The barrier of 5100 was broken a few weeks ago, and now with a change of Government there is optimism..thank Goodness!
A S X A N N O U N C E M E N T
13th September 2013
ADSLOT TO ACQUIRE FACILITATE DIGITAL
• Adslot to acquire Facilitate Digital via a Scheme Of Arrangement
• The combined business will bring together supply at scale and demand at scale into a single media trading platform
• By integrating the companies digital workflow and trading technologies, over A$800m of premium display agency ad spend from Facilitate Digital agencies will be available to trade directly with Adslot publishers
• An expanded global footprint, including sales offices in Sydney, Melbourne, New York, San Francisco, London, Hamburg, Shanghai and Auckland
• Enlarged cash position and access to immediate compliance related cost synergies
• Facilitate Digital shareholders to receive Adslot Shares and to hold 28 per cent of the enlarged Adslot
Adslot Limited (ASX:ADJ, Adslot), a global provider of online display media trading technology, and Facilitate Digital Holdings Limited (ASX:FAC, Facilitate Digital), a global provider of digital workflow and trading technology for media agencies, today announced they have entered into an agreement under which Adslot will acquire Facilitate Digital via a recommended scheme of arrangement between Facilitate Digital and its shareholders (Scheme).
Strategic Rationale
The acquisition will combine Adslot's expertise in media trading technology for publishers with Facilitate
Digital's leading platform for media buyers. Adslot Chairman Adrian Giles said:
"Adslot's vision is to become the world's leading provider of premium display media trading technology. Our strategy is to create a dynamic marketplace in which buyers and sellers of premium display media can trade seamlessly and with greater efficiency.
"Since the global launch of Adslot Publisher in October 2012, we have signed more than 650 online publishers to our platform, building a significant catalogue of supply in the process.
"Facilitate Digital's Symphony technology is being deployed by a large and growing global community of media agency buyers across Australia, Asia, Europe and the United States. More than A$800m per annum of display media transactions flow through Symphony. By linking this large and growing media spend to Adslot's rapidly growing catalogue of premium ad inventory, we can offer both publishers and
agencies improved efficiency and scalability, and simultaneously reduce their costs. In turn, this integration of buyers and sellers will drive liquidity in our marketplace.
"This arrangement makes Adslot one of the first companies in the world to bring both supply and demand for premium display inventory under one roof."
Facilitate Digital's CEO Ben Dixon, said:
"Facilitate Digital's agency workflow product Symphony has been adopted in multiple markets by some of the world's largest agency groups, including WPP and Interpublic, and we continue to grow the number of media agencies using the technology throughout Australasia, Asia, Europe and the United States.
"It has been our intention to introduce real-time media trading to our agency customers in order to establish transactional revenues. The arrangement with Adslot allows us to pursue this more rapidly, whilst offering our agency customers the synergy of Facilitate Digital's demand side technology and experience, in combination with Adslot's supply side technology and experience.
"On this basis, we can provide media agencies with a genuinely differentiated and compelling proposition, and do so under a commercial model that has the potential to significantly increase the size of our
revenue opportunity."
Adslot's acquisition of Facilitate Digital is expected to deliver significant benefits.
Expected benefits to Adslot and Adslot Shareholders
• A more rapid execution of its strategic vision
• Access to advertising demand at scale (over A$800m per annum)
• Ownership of a proven, incumbent buy side technology (Symphony)
• Greater scale, including a combined sales organisation encompassing Australia, New Zealand, China, Germany, UK and US
• Enlarged Group cash position and access to immediate compliance related cost synergies
• Based on FY13, a 111% increase in Group revenue
• Based on FY13, a A$1.18m positive contribution to Group EBITDA
Expected benefits to Facilitate Digital and Facilitate Digital Shareholders
• A more rapid execution of its strategic vision
• Real time access to the premium display inventory of more than 650 publishers across the globe
• Greater scale, including a combined sales organisation encompassing Australia, New Zealand, China, Germany, UK and US
• Enlarged Group cash position and access to immediate compliance related cost synergies
• Greater liquidity for shareholders through their holding of Adslot shares
• A significant valuation premium
Ben Dixon will undertake a staged transition to the role of Adslot Group Chief Operating Officer, including responsibility for the continued management of the Facilitate Digital business. Ian Lowe will assume responsibilities of Group CEO.
Transaction Summary
Under the Scheme, Facilitate Digital's shareholders will be offered 1.216 new Adslot shares for each Facilitate Digital share they hold. The enlarged Adslot will be approximately 28 per cent owned by current Facilitate Digital shareholders.
Based on Adslot's 90-day volume weighted average price (VWAP) of A$0.055 on 11 September
2013, the Adslot offer values Facilitate Digital at A$15 million, or A$0.067 per share. This equates to 2.9 times Facilitate Digital's FY13 revenue and 12.8 times Facilitate Digital's FY13 EBITDA.
Following implementation of the Scheme, Geoff Dixon (the largest shareholder of Facilitate Digital)
and Ben Dixon (the current CEO of Facilitate Digital) will join the Adslot board. The Scheme is unanimously recommended by the boards of both companies.
Facilitate Digital Board Recommendation and Intentions
Facilitate Digital's directors unanimously recommend that Facilitate Digital shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme, in the absence of a superior proposal and subject to an independent expert concluding that the Scheme is in shareholders best interests.
Subject to those two qualifications, each Facilitate Digital Director intends to vote in favour of the
Scheme in respect of their own holdings in Facilitate Digital.
Timetable and Conditions
The Scheme is subject to minimal conditions comprising:
• usual regulatory approvals from ASIC and the Court;
• Facilitate Digital shareholder approval;
• receipt of an independent expert's report confirming that the Scheme is in the best interests of
Facilitate Digital shareholders;
• no Material Adverse Change (as defined in the Scheme Implementation Deed) occurring to either
Facilitate Digital or Adslot; and
• no Prescribed Occurrence (as defined in the Scheme Implementation Deed) occurring in relation to either Adslot or Facilitate Digital
The full conditions are included in the executed Scheme Implementation Deed, which accompanies this announcement.
Facilitate Digital has agreed to give typical deal protections to Adslot including exclusivity undertakings and payment of a break fee of A$300,000 in certain circumstances where the Scheme does not proceed. Full details of these deal protections are included in the executed Scheme implementation Deed which accompanies this announcement.
It is expected that:
• an Explanatory Booklet will be despatched to Facilitate Digital shareholders by early November
2013 - this will contain full details in relation to the Scheme, an Independent Expert's Report, a notice convening the Scheme meeting and a proxy form,
• the meeting of Facilitate Digital shareholders to vote on the Scheme will be held by early
December 2013; and
• the Scheme will become effective by mid December 2013 and fully implemented shortly thereafter.
Advisers
.
Enquiries Adslot
Remember to do your own homework. Trading is full of risk. We are not financial advisors. We could be wrong.
AS/NZS/ISO 14001, AS/NZS/ISO 4804, AS/NZS/ISO 4360.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Straits Resources Ltd (ASX:SRQ)
Straits Resources Ltd
(ASX:SRQ) have had some good announcements, and are on the rise, and cheap.
worth buying a small parcel. risen today again. so far so good..check it out..
Remember we are not financial advisors..
Sampson management Services (SMS) educate and inform only...We are Assett Management Consultants- we teach you about risk and how to measure that risk according to the international standards on Quality, Environment, OHS, and Risk management in an integrated approach.
Ref standards:
AS/NZS/ISO 9001, AS/NZS/ISO 14001, AS/NZS/ISO 4804, AS/NZS/ISO 4360.
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